Projection Assumption Guidelines

Date : 11 July 2016

The 2016 Projection Assumption Guidelines, published by the IQPF and FPSC, are now available. Updated yearly, the Guidelines are in their 10th year, since they were first presented at the 2008 IQPF congress.

Developed by Nathalie Bachand, A.S.A., F.Pl., Martin Dupras, A.S.A., F.Pl., M. Fisc., William Jack, CFP, FCIA, CPCA, Daniel Laverdière, A.S.A., F.Pl., and Patrick Longhurst, CFP, FCIA, the document includes estimates for the inflation rate, borrowing rate, life expectancy and 5 types of returns: short-term, fixed income, Canadian equities, foreign developed market equities and emerging market equities. The Guidelines also include an estimate for the growth of the year's maximum pensionable earnings (YMPE or MPE).

For 2016, the guidelines are:

  • borrowing rate: 5.00%
  • inflation rate: 2.10%
  • short term returns: 3.00%
  • fixed income returns: 4.00%
  • Canadian equities returns: 6.40%
  • Foreign developed market equities returns: 6.80%
  • emerging market equities returns: 7.70%
  • Growth of the YMPE or MPE: 3.10% (inflation + 1%)

The Projection Assumption Guidelines are based on various external sources such as the Quebec Pension Plan and the Canada Pension Plan.