2017 Projection Assumption Guidelines

Date : 31 July 2017

The 2017 Projection Assumption Guidelines, published by the IQPF and FPSC, are now available. Updated yearly, the Guidelines are in their 10th year, since they were first presented at the 2008 IQPF congress.

Developed by Nathalie Bachand, A.S.A., F.Pl., Martin Dupras, A.S.A., F.Pl., M.Fisc., ASC, Daniel Laverdière, A.S.A., F.Pl., Patrick Longhurst, CFP, FCIA and A. Kim Young, CFP, FCIA, the document includes estimates for the inflation rate, borrowing rate, life expectancy and 5 types of returns: short-term, fixed income, Canadian equities, foreign developed market equities and emerging market equities. The Guidelines also include an estimate for the growth of the year's maximum pensionable earnings (YMPE or MPE).

For 2017, the guidelines are:

  • borrowing rate: 4.90%
  • inflation rate: 2.00%
  • short-term returns: 2.90%
  • fixed income returns: 3.90%
  • Canadian equities returns: 6.50%
  • Foreign developed market equities returns: 6.70%
  • emerging market equities returns: 7.50%
  • Growth of the YMPE or MPE: 3.00% (inflation + 1%)

The Projection Assumption Guidelines are based on various external sources such as the Quebec Pension Plan and the Canada Pension Plan.

An Addendum accompanies the 2017 Projection Assumption Guidelines. This additional document contains the data sources on which the Projection Assumption Guidelines are based, as well as the specific calculations for inflation and rate of return guidelines. The Addendum also includes historical Projection Assumption Guidelines dating back to 2009, rates of return for relevant indices and the standard deviation of returns.