2015 Projection Assumption Guidelines

Date : 4 May 2015

For a few years now, the IQPF has been publishing its Projection Assumption Guidelines. Updated yearly, the Projection Assumption Guidelines are intended as an aid in making medium and long-term financial projections, an important part of the financial planning process.

This year, the Financial Planning Standards Council (FPSC) has joined the IQPF in the development of unified Canadian Projection Assumption Guidelines. You can download the full version now.

Developed by Nathalie Bachand, A.S.A., F.Pl., Martin Dupras, A.S.A., F.Pl., M. Fisc., William Jack, CFP, FCIA, CPCA, Daniel Laverdière, A.S.A., F.Pl., and Patrick Longhurst, CFP, FCIA, the document includes estimates for the inflation rate, borrowing rate, life expectancy and three types of returns: short-term, fixed income and Canadian shares. For the first time this year, the Guidelines also include an estimate for the growth of the year's maximum pensionable earnings (YMPE or MPE).

For 2015, the guidelines are:

  • borrowing rate: 4.90%
  • inflation rate: 2.00%
  • short term returns: 2.90%
  • fixed income returns: 3.90%
  • Canadian equities returns: 6.30%
  • Growth of the YMPE or MPE: 3.00% (inflation + 1%)

The Projection Assumption Guidelines are based on various external sources such as the Quebec Pension Plan and the Canada Pension Plan.